I'll have a retrospective/sendoff/thanks piece up about the Blazers season soon, but to put the cart before the horse, here's an edited version of what Jefferson had to say about next steps. Damn him, the guy knows what he's talking about on this subject, too. Are there ANY gaps in his Oregon knowledge?
Blazers need to shop for a point guard who can put pressure on the defense, or they need to commit to playing Rudy and Roy together as well as adding a 3 who can help with the ballhandling a la Pippen/Roy. (Altenatively...cross fingers for Bayless improvement, but shortish arms might limit him)...I like Blake...as one of the best backup PGs in the league.
Oden needs to (a) cut down fouls to stay on the court; (b) develop a left-hand post counter to go with his jump hook; and (c) work on conditioning, flexibility, and slimming, so he can stay healthy.
Outlaw and Batum need to develop penetration games, or the Blazers need to shop for a new 3 (I'm not convinced Webster is much of an upgrade). This is especially important if we don't add a penetrating PG. Our three small forwards are close to what we need, but not quite...hopefully one or more can develop.
Aldridge...needs to (a) improve inside game to get some easy buckets; (b) beef up rebounding up to 8-9+ boards/game, (c) develop a left hand finish, and/or (d) consider embracing finesse game further, by driving to the hoop and being a centerpiece passer like Gasol and Nowitzki. He has those tools.
Blazers need to add some muscle -- either by Oden staying on the floor, current players like Aldridge toughening, or adding a new stronger SF. Some strengthening can come with age (or with undetectable human growth hormone, which I advise against).
For the record, I think Blake CAN be a good enough starting PG, although it would be a helpful thing indeed to get a crazy-defending, heavy-distributing guard instead. I worry about missing his key buckets offensively, though. As far as Outlaw and Martell, I think Martell IS a better version, and matches up well with Batum there as his defensive opposite. I love Travis on a personal level, and some aspects of his game are dynamite, but it's too streaky and comes at too high a cost elsewhere.
And I like LMA is well on his way to the dominance Jeff talks about, but could always use some improvement. Oden will be fine, and I think Joel can teach him everything he needs to know--but footwork and ballhandling in the paint are key work areas for the summer.
That's what Rudy Fernandez had to say after the game about the prospect of going to Houston: "We know Houston is a difficult arena, but we believe. We believe." (That's in Joe Freeman's recap at The O, but you should check out the profile/news piece on Rudy that's also in today's editions.) After a game like Game 5 in the Garden Tuesday night, how do you not believe?
How can you not become vested in these games, your heart pacing with the rhythm of the ups and downs, hoping for the flash of brilliance from these new young guys who like being here and play so hard they remind us of the magic--small m--years of the Blazers? (Don't look at me for sanity; my developing mancrushes are becoming so disconcerting that I squeal like a 14 year old girl when Rudy hits a three).
So when the Olympic half of the Spanish Armada says he believes, who's to argue? It's not so stupid a belief, despite the long struggles for Portland there--after a regular season where they never threatened the Rockets in Houston, in the playoffs they've had at least a couple chances to win each one, and in the last game actually took control late for a few moments before collapsing in a heap of mistakes.
There are some solid reasons to favor the Blazers just a little in Game 6, not least of which is a momentum shift that places much more of the performance pressure on the Rockets than on Portland. Several recent first round exits have got the fans and local media a bit spooked, to the point where a loss in Game 6 automatically cedes the series back in Oregon. And then there's that whole how-many-minutes-can-Yao-play-before-he-turns-to-salt question, after yet another 40-minute performance.
Blazer fans for their part take some of the same liberties in their assumptions about a Game 7 sure-win scenario, but if Portland falls it will be the end of an enormously successful season, in which every playoff game was gravy to start with. Our fantasies are just that--what-ifs that aren't unreasonable, just way too much to expect. The threat of losing shouldn't be hanging over this team, threatening to discolor the effort of the whole season. It's ALREADY a huge success.
Houston fans, on the other hand, aren't satisfied with another first round exit, nor should they be. To begin with, the Rockets should have been 2nd seed and mauling the Hornets right now, instead of locked in this matchup that gets uglier and more unsure for them by the game. And they've got plenty of experience and defense to be showing well in the second season. In sum, Blazer fans can be loose and accept whatever outcome occurs in the end. Houston's players and coaches will not receive quite the "ah well, great try!" welcome come salarly negotiation time over the summer.
So this Game 5 win was (natch) pretty freakin' huge. Shall we talk about it a bit? Sure, why not. Let's start below...
Put on your best crazy prospector voice as you say with me, "Reckon we got er-selves a humdinger of a pistol shootin', rootin'-tootin' SERIES now!" If you like hoop at all and that game didn't have you up out of your seat half the time, reach over and give the heart monitor machine a whack--you might not still be alive.
Back and forth it went, from one run to another, one momentum shift to the next. It took some superhuman play from some seemingly superhuman ballers, and a whole lot of overcome adversity, but the Blazers now have what they came to get, because honestly--when you listen to them talk, they're not thinking about championships or WCF appearances or even beating the Lakers in Round 2. They came to get playoff experience, and an understanding of what it takes to win.
They now have that understanding, but I think it still suprises this young team just how much intensity is required to compete for and win a playoff game in the NBA. After the game Brandon Roy joked, Bush-esquely, that it was "hard work to win playoff games." All I ask the team is no "Playoffs Accomplished" banners before they leave for Houston, OK?
Seriously, even if the Blazers lose both games in Houston and then can't stay alive in Game 5 (tickets available 10AM tomorrow, but ONLY through trailblazers.com), this will have been an eminently valuable season for the team's future. Not only do they now grasp just how easy it is to get blown out if you're not loaded for bear from the git-go, they know it's possible to regroup, retain a high level of energy and mostly just go out and play.
That said, I think this team now not only has the tools to win a road game in this series, but the moxie and focus of determination. Houston, while being a beast at home in the regular season (who in the West isn't?), has struggled recently in some key playoff games, which might help explain the number of first-round exits they've had. I actually think with current circumstances the chances are actually better than 50-50 that the Blazers will get that homecourt recovery accomplished.
As the first playoff game in six years approaches, no one--not the players or coaches, broadcasters or pundits, stat geeks or tools scouts, Vegas cons or Omaha housewives--has any idea how the Rockets-Blazers series, or the fate of the Blazers in general, will turn out. I hope, anyway. I can't handle another officiating scandal, for instance.
If you're hardcore, a short trip to Blazers Edge will give you as much pregame hype as you can stomach, all likely done with more BBIQ than mine. My niche is stats though, and with the end of the regular season there's a natural break point for retrospection.
Stats are good for telling you how something has already happened, and can offer insights for the future, but aren't good predicitive tools. What they're best used for here is deciding which teams that looked good to the eye were doing it on solid execution, and which were getting by on smoke and mirrors and are due for retrenchment.
There are several sources for useful stats info; I'll be looking at NBA.com, Hollinger at ESPN.com, and the great Basketball-reference.com site. I'll look at team stats and individual, team first.
Get a drink, a smoke, a pillow, whatever you do to make life bearable as Lou Reed once said, and we'll start below....numbers ahoy! (and yeah, that's a warning to the phobic)
Stuck at work/school? Nowhere near Portland this semi-sunny afternoon? (Like the weather would matter for this!) Can't get to the big "Thank You and Good Luck" rally for the Trail Blazers?
Before I get all rhapsodical over everything, let's make sure the facts don't get short shrift: The Portland Trail Blazers completed their best regular season since 1999-00, and made the playoffs for the first time in six years with the crucial (homecourt) fourth seed. They finished by beating the Denver Nuggets 104-76, in a game where the Nuggets appeared to learn midway of the game's seeding meaninglessness to Denver, who was locked in as #2 by virtue of Houston's loss and San Antonio's OT win (damn that James Posey!)
The Blazers will open this Saturday eveneing against Houston, the fifth seed, in Portland at the Garden. Tuesday night will also be there, and then two games will go down in Houston before (presumably) they'll come back here for Game 5 and alternate as necessary for the next two.
You up to speed now? Fully briefed? OK.
There's a deeper reason I've been covering the Blazers this year, although not a hidden one; I've said before that I sensed this season was building to something special. I got excited during the 13-game run last year, and I did the first Blazer coverage at Loaded Orygun during that time. Enjoy it or wish there were more politics, there's no way to deny the Blazers as a notable Oregon story, not just by virtue of their being the only game in town.
I expected a great story--the rebuilding of a team that had lost its way and in the process its community and fanbase, but admitted its faults and started fresh, from players to coaches to management. And how about that, this scrappy young team managed to sneak into the playoffs to get waxed by the Lakers in 5! That's awesome, I thought. Good story, worth following.
If someone you know is saying they predicted home court in Round 1 back in November, slap them for lyin'. I called 50+ wins a solid likelihood on December 4th, and a month later pegged it at 51. But friends would have slapped me stupid (not a long journey, I know) if I'd gone on about the Blazers getting one of the top four seeds. Utah? NO? Dallas? Houston? Portland's gonna finish ahead of them?
And what about the division? I don't know if people have fully grasped this, but the Blazers are 100% within their rights--and will have a banner--to declare their Northwest Division (co) Championship. The seeding only happens for the playoffs; for purposes of winning the division it's a tie. Heck, if the NBA wised up and used something like point differential, the Blazers would be the #2 seed instead.
So I had a hunch, and hoped that something really good was happening, something that would not only recapture the town's heart no matter the result, but which might even stretch beyond the Rose City and generate discussion across the country.
The appeal of the story has exceeded any fan's wildest dreams. There are perhaps greater achievements yet to come for this franchise and this core group of guys, but this year is like seeing the Beatles in Hamburg, or knowingly scoring tickets to THAT week of Ed Sullivan. You can say you saw them when, you saw what they might do, before they did it.
And now it's penetrated: the rest of the league is talking about "nobody wants to face Portland," and their potential to be a serious sleeper in the West in trying to get past the Rockets and then the Lakers. Brandon Roy was Player of the Week, and Oden is being recognized at least for being a solid post defender, having graduated from being a total bust to simply not being Patrick Ewing or Bill Russell.
The cute little team that could, in short, did. Their story is going bigtime, and I wanted to be there to cover it as it broke. That's worked out pretty well, eh?
I've been putting off and putting off the Rockets recap for a variety of reasons--sleep, work, family, it was a loss....but I'm also still not sure how to process the sequence of events Sunday. Sure, the dominant mood SHOULD be celebration, because the young Blazers did something by rights they shouldn't have been able to do, and which most pundits and basketball scribes subscribed to--make the playoffs. And make them from the West, and not squeaking in on the final day, but two weeks early, fighting not just for extra games but for THE extra home game you get by being seed #1 through #4 in the first round.
But was it coincidence that the team they were playing the day they discovered the Suns had erased the final magic number, was the Houston Rockets? The team that was behind them in 5th, now ahead of them in 4th, and with the Blazers loss a more assured first round opponent no matter what? The very same.
And so watching the game as it unfolded, beyond the win or loss, the need to establish quality road tallies, and the obvious interest in pulling tighter in the standings with those above (like the Spurs, Wednesday's opponent and another very similar opportunity), I was watching the game thinking, "How are the Blazers going to deal with 7 games of this...if they're lucky?" Or more saliently, "How are the Blazers going to win even once here, if they're the 5th seed?"
And so that's what I've been thinking all day yesterday: Hells Yeah! but also Oh crap, is it going to be over that quickly? And well it might, based on that last game. Perhaps the most disappointing thing about it wasn't the loss but the fact that Portland didn't really play badly; they just came up small--in some ways literally. If they'd just totally screwed the pooch you might be able to write it off and look forward with a clear optimism. But the hard fact is that Portland was OK, Houston was better.
With a hat tip to the Stones, that's about as accurate as a recap headline gets--last night's overtime loss to the Philadelphia 76ers was an epic of disappointment, despair, guts, redemption, oppression, elation, anxiety, anger and maybe even some palpitation. The game had nearly everything--but in the end, it mostly just sucked. Missing an opportunity to once again reach parity with Denver in the Northwest Division as the Suns were beating the Nuggets, not to mention reducing their magic number to 7 for nailing down a playoff spot, made it even more unsatisfying to ruminate over what could have been.
What could have been was a huge, gut-check kind of victory over a team that matches up beautifully with Portland's weaknesses, a positive closeout to an enormously successful 09 campaign against the Eastern Conference, and a guilt-free excuse to gush about the violent and happy return of Greg Oden's on-court beastliness. All of that was ruined by poor overtime execution and abject whistle-swallowing by the officials down the stretch, following a dramatic comeback from their largest halftime deficit of the year at the Garden, 44-58.
But screw it; I'm going to try to focus on the positive anyway. The Blazers still have 11 games left, 6 at home, and only need a 6-5 record in them to reach the magic of 50. They are about as healthy as they've been all season (Travis hurt his pinky late but seems to be OK for Thursday), and even in their losses lately they are beginning to look--gasp--like a playoff team.
Well, here we are on the other side of the All-Star break, and for the first time in years the Blazers are not thinking about next season. Precariously perched in 4th place of the Western Conference playoff race, the final slot for crucial home-court advantage in the first round, Portland is nonetheless perched--and with a favorable schedule most of the rest of the way, the opportunity exists to hold serve and even challenge for the division title.
On the other hand, the team's weaknesses are clear, and the period since 2009 began has been productive in terms of wins but also shows that the rest of the league is catching up to what was working for the Blazers earlier in the season. Brandon Roy is seeing a lot of doubles, Greg Oden is being attacked and baited in order to get him off the court, and everybody is pick n rolling like Chubby Checker invented it. And right now is when the bullies get serious and the stars wake up, so coasting is not a viable option for the Blazers right now.
Below the fold I'm going to share a little analyis work I did over the weekend using Hollingers stats profile, but this also seems like a good time to link you up and get you back to speed. Blazer's Edge of course gathers what you need to know; here's a cull from the last several days:
In order to estimate the likelihood of a win in any given game, I used John Hollinger's Power Rankings for NBA teams, and divided the competition into four tiers of difficulty: Elite (30% chance of a win in any one game); Peer (50% chance); Lesser (60% chance); and Chum (80% chance). The tiers and figures are all eyeballed, based loosely on the idea that a team with a .700 winning percentage would be 70% likely to win any one game. Cleveland, Boston and LA are over .800 right now, but when you include Orlando, Denver, and Utah the average gets closer to .700. (And a month later we'd likely swap San Antonio for Utah, but the principle would remain the same).
Obviously a "peer" team is one generally equivalent, and that fairly well describes most of the other West teams Portland is competing with. Then there's a group of teams who aren't quite on that level but remain dangerous--we'll call them the Unpredictables, and given Portland's .600+ record so far, I apply the reverse of the elites calculation, giving the other teams 40% win chance against the Blazers. The "chum" represent the bottom half, against whom--by reputation and also good Blazer efficiency against such teams in the past--one can expect a win 4 out of 5 times.
So, a month later, are the Blazers still on track?
Take note of this, and file it away for the end of the season: NBA "expert" Kenny Smith looks at the 2-9 teams in the West in this video report, and projects the team who'll be looking in from the outside come playoff time...Portland? His view is that while several other teams have troubles right now, they'll get healthy/find their identity/discover their stars again and make the dance, but the Blazers are just too inconsistent. Oden is "still a year away from being a prime time player," which is probably true as far as it goes--but I think it vastly underestimates Oden's ability to impact games by the end of the season, even against more dominant bigs.
Still no respect, and I suppose until you've proven yourself it's rational to suggest that they might be the team to crumble. But we've played half a season now, and ranking systems like Hollinger and Stein both have the Blaze currently at #9. Hollinger has Portland ahead of EVERY other team in the West except the Lakers, Nuggets and Hornets; Stein has the Spurs and Suns ahead.
And is Kenny aware of the fact that the Blazers' strength of schedule so far is .521%, the best of Hollinger's top 15? Does he know that the next 10 games for Portland include two against the Clips, two against the Oklahoma City Hopelesses, and one each against Memphis and Golden State? That's the caliber of team they're going to be seeing disproportionately down the stretch.
So rock on, Kenny Smith. We'll see you back in April, and check out how you down.
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