It's been a stomach-churning but compelling ride through the 09-10 Blazers season so far, not unlike eating a dodgy day-old birthday cake, but I've maintained a sense of optimism ever since Joel Przybilla went down. Homer say what? Optimism? Even the thought of serious title contention had to go out the window, and even making the playoffs seemed a hopelessly, almost laughingly lost cause.
But at that point, the pressure was off and the remaining active team bonded by necessity and erased what was a successful but tense atmosphere to start the season. It had to be that chemistry and sense of abandon that carried them through the darkest days when it seemed the team was inches away from activating Blaze the mascot and Rebecca Harlow.
And so here they stand, with a chance to catch their breath before diving into the home stretch of the season in Denver Sunday night, the first of eighteen final regular season games that feature champions and chumps alike. The Blazers have achieved a remarkable 37-37 mark to this point, considering a hardship that included more games in fewer days than anyone in the league to this point.
That's what makes this long weekend before the Nuggets game a natural reflection point--the schedule smooths out and the competition definitely eases overall, although several games against the elites remain. And as I said, I've taken the perspective of every win being gravy in this Slog of Attrition--but I confess to a little expectional greed as the playoffs draw nigh and the team's chances continue to look more favorable than not for joining the dance.
As a prediction, for the rest of the way I see Portland putting together a reasonable 11-7 mark and finishing at 48-34. Part of that is already a hedge for Marcus Camby's ankle injury; if it's just for Denver and maybe a couple more games I don't think it's anything the team can't overcome--but much beyond that and it could depress their win total, especially against the big boys.
But I called the piece The Path to 50 for a reason, because I found it surprisingly easy to break down the remaining schedule and come up with a 50-32 season that represents the benchmark for NBA season success, which almost certainly guarantees the playoffs this year, and which very possibly would portend a 5-7 slot instead of #8.
There are two ways I'm going to look at it--from a numeric-logical perspective, and from a season flow view. They kind of work together, with the key-game stretches I'll highlight representing the "warning" signs on the road to the Finals (cough), with a big-picture look based on the raw matchups and odds for success.
The basics are that 18 games remain, and to get to 50 the Blazers need a 13-5 finish (.722). Ten of them are on the road. That's a negative of course, but the Blazers are actually one of the most potent road teams in the Association.
Fifteen of them are Western Conference tilts against whom Portland is 23-14, behind only the L*kers and the Nuggets in the West. As a generality, those are favorable conditions. Twenty-three of 37 is .621, so they'd have to step it up in those games or sweep the East teams that they've actually had more trouble with (17-14) this year.
And stepping it up is not an unreasonable thought, when you consider the makeup of those West teams. Out of the fifteen contests, one third are against the second-and third-worst teams in the conference, Sacramento and Golden State. The Blazers are 2-1 so far, both coming after the injurious apocalyptica. Three of the five are on the road, which is tricky normally but perhaps not this year. And you've got to take care of your business in those cases. Teams on a playoff drive don't drop more than the rarest games against such competition as the Kings and Warriors.
Sidebarring with the East for a moment, there are three of them and all feature teams not much better than Sacto and the Warriors: Raptors, Wiz, Knicks. Bosh will probably be back for the Toronto game, but as long as Camby and Roy play the Blazers have the horses to win at the Garden. Washington and NYC should be gimmes, although both teams beat Portland in their place. The season is long over for them, and a West Coast swing is a drainer. The Raps will be on a back to back, and the Knicks in the 5th day of a killer 9 day swing.
So look--out of 18 games, fully eight of them could fairly be considered safe wins, as safely as any win can be predicted. That's an enormous start. When you need 13 to get to 50, what can you expect from these eight? Seven? Six at worst? You'd hope so. Let's say six. That leaves seven of 10 from the rest, a tall order given the competition...but doable. Let's look.
There are pairs of games remaining against Denver, Dallas and Oklahoma City, that's six. The Lakers and Phoenix are the other two playoff opponents, and then there are two against the string-playing Hornets and Clips. So six rematch games against teams ahead of them, the Southwest playoff pair, and the Catfish of the West pair.
My head tells me that this is where they falter to 50, perhaps as much as two games leading to my 48-34 prediction. On the other hand, there are some pretty reasonable scenarios if the Blazers take care of business consistently enough. The two Denver games are the toughest of the rematch pair, both on the road and not very good matchups for Portland. If they're not going to make 50, they'll lose both of these. But if they can earn a split--not Sunday without Camby maybe, but perhaps April 1st with off days on either side--they'll be running solid.
The Dallas games on the other hand, are both at home--and frankly, the Blazers took the Mavs apart both times in Dallas. But the Mavericks really are smacking people and look like they're getting into playoff mode. Give them them a split here with some more confidence, although it will still be an accomplishment.
The opportunity, and thus perhaps the most important games left, are home and away against the dangerous Thunder. (Imagine saying that!) OKC are a mere 1.5 games ahead of Portland for the 6th spot, but they also have three games in hand and could tack on another 1.5.
Still, the teams are pretty evenly matched--they got smoked by the Blazers and Oden's first double-double of the year, winning here without facing Roy. Marcus Camby is not a perfect analogue for Oden, but assuming Roy and Camby play there is a perfectly reasonable chance for Portland to take both games. Not only does this keep them on the path to fifty, it also gives them a big advantage in getting ahead of OKC in the playoff race.
Two splits and a sweep out of that six is a tough challenge, but it's a workable path. Maybe you think a sweep is more likely in two homeys against the Mavs than being able to TCB against Durant and the Thunder. But no more than two losses really need to come out of those six if they hope to reach the golden 50.
The challenges don't get any easier, as the last one calls for a 3-1 record at worst. Two of the games are on the road against the nonplayoff West, in the form of the Clippers and the Hornets. Those both need to be wins in this scenario, but they're doable and aren't timed badly travel-wise.
The one remaining loss to account for would come between the L*kers in LA or the Suns in Phoenix. Portland won a great one in Arizona last month, and played a great game I saw at home for the win. Either the Blazers figure out the Forum, or this Suns game has to be a victory.
Tough recipe? You bet. Realistic? Remember, I'm an optimist. But add it up: six of eight versus the West dregs and East sucks at home. Four of six in rematch games. And two versus the West slackers plus one of Phoenix or LA on the road. 6 + 4 + 2 + 1 = 50 wins!
I said I would review it from a flow perspective--it looks good on paper, but can they realistically accomplish it given the logistics? As we said, the month of March is a comparatively relaxing tour of the league. There are 13 games in March, the least since 13 in 28-day February, 15 in January and December, and 16 games in November. Eighteen off-or-travel days is pretty lax by NBA standards, and should hopefully give them both time to nurse wounds and stay rested and ready for each game.
There are two key stretches I see, both by opponent and timing. The first starts at home vs Dallas on the 25th (TNT Thursday, good omen!), followed by a (late because of TNT) plane trip (bad omen!) to Looziana and the Hornets on the 27th, with the Thunder the next night. New Orleans is the easiest of the three and comes with a travel day, but could well be a trap game between a draining Mavs tussle and what has become a real rivalry game against OKC.
The shoulders of that 3-gamer are Phoenix and Knicks, Phoenix the roadie. Together it all makes for five really important games, but spaced well enough to give them a competitive shot at all of them.
The second mini-run also starts with Dallas, again at the Garden on April 9th. There's a travel day and then a Sunday afternoon L*ker game on ABC. The following night, after a full day of circus and crash, the Thunder come meet them in the Rose Garden. The cusps of this trio are two peaches, Clippers on the road and Warriors at home to close the season.
If the Blazers can get through those 10 games without damage that cuts too deep, the other eight are again mostly easier games. I want to try and get the point across again, that you can't ever really take any game for granted, but if you're analyzing the odds of a stretch of games eventually you have to make a reasoned call on wins and losses.
And none of these little scenarios I've constructed honestly represent challenges beyond the current Blazers' capability (assuming good health of the remaining players). Beat Dallas twice? Been there. Beat OKC? Sure. Take Phoenix on the road? Yep. Clean up on weaker teams? Of course. Win some unexpected games on the back-to-back? No doubt. Is rest an issue? Shouldn't be.
So come tax day in the US, April 15th, if the basketball gods finally pull the pins out of the doll and give the Blazers a tiny break this year, you can nod knowingly amongst your lesser roundball brethren and say, "Well of COURSE they got to 50, they had a clear path to it when March started." And then if you have this column discreetly written on your hand and throw in a you betcha or two, you'll be golden.
I'm sort of falling into a rhythm now, finding those signpost moments in the Blazers' 09-10 season that are appropriate to chronicle and review. We've hit another one, certainly bittersweet to the extreme at both ends--and if you watched the just-completed Road Trip of Death last night, you know exactly what I mean.
First the bad news for anyone who is getting their Blazer info directly from LO (and that's not such a good idea if you'd like to know Tuesday's news before Thursday): center Joel Przybilla, defensive rock of the team, #1 bench rebounder in the NBA, and tragic starter in the wake of Greg Oden's season-ending knee injury...suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Please do get your hard Blazer news elsewhere, otherwise you wouldn't believe me if I'd tried to tell you. Similar to Oden, Joel's kneecap split in half. Unlike Greg, he also ruptured his patellar tendon, a far more serious and career-affecting injury and rehab. The surgery will give more indications and no one is calling it over by any means, but a pessimistic view would have to include 2011-2012 as a possible window for return.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the funeral for the team's playoff hopes. Turns out the other guys on the roster are ALSO NBA-quality players, and they were not about to sit in a puddle of their own tears and lament broken dreams. What they were ready to do, in fact, was a serious amount of bootstrap-hiking and the no-question best road trip in ages, healthy or not: 3-1 against four high quality teams, including three in a row against Miami, Dallas and San Antonio. And the Orlando game was easily winnable as well. Someone forgot to tell Jeff Pendergraph and Juwan Howard that they're not ready/past useful.
It's common to expect a certain surge of adrenaline in the game where a beloved/key player goes down; everybody rallies and says things like "Win this for Joel," and you can will yourself to a victory. But the next morning, emotionally and physically worn down from 3 games in 4 days, typically the bottom falls out--not least because the other team has had 24 hours to notice, hey wow, they've got no centers! You think Greg Popovich and Tim Duncan didn't grasp that at tipoff? Of course they did.
So how to explain the fact that it didn't matter? Has Howard been secretly pounding bottles of Mona Vie? I'll get to the true emerging hero in a moment, but let's give the ancient Juwan an extraordinary amount of credit. You know his age and experience have helped him guide the young guys through repeated crises already, and since Joel went down Howard has begun channeling him with double-doubles in each game and immediately improved defense. Center or no, somebody has to help out and be that guy, and Howard not only has done that, he's also contributed some unexpected offense. A big tip of the cap to Kevin Pritchard for filling a need before he even knew he had one.
Last night's savior and brilliantly packaged present for Portland was undoubtedly Jerryd Bayless, however. Making his first career start in place of the (gulp, hopefully much less injured) Brandon Roy, B-Rex basically did his best B-Roy: 42 minutes, 31 points, many trips to the line with shots made down the stretch, 2-2 from distance, 7 assists, and--this kills me--NO turnovers. In 42 minutes! And he wasn't sitting on the wing texting friends, he was straight up balling. He's already had a couple of coming-out type games, but this makes it official: Association, meet Jerryd Bayless.
As I noted after the Phoenix game in which Bayless set his previous career high with 29 points, it's the other things that are opening eyes: ability to hit longer jumpers, better senses at the rack to either shoot, dish or work the foul, and very active defense. He had a stop on Parker last night that was a one man Checkpoint Charlie, and despite being called for the block against Parker late, it sure looked like a charge, and he's taken others that were actually called. So the points and flash are great, but the gift is that he's showing signs of the capacity to become a complete player. No pressure!
The team is home and enjoying a day off before the Nuggets come to the Garden on Christmas Day. It's not realistic to expect a win; it seems too much to ask, too perfect--but so did the last three wins. Believe, maybe leave out some milk and cookies, and even Brandon will play. The forecast for Friday? Sunny with a chance of miracles.
Update--Blazers Edge says Joel is officially done for the year, but expected back next training camp. Whew!
I'm doing a pretty good job so far in picking home games to attend: Minnesota, the 2nd Houston game, and now versus Phoenix last night, a game in which the Blazers stormed back from a 15-point 3rd quarter deficit and set the Garden to rocking with a dominant coming-out-party for sophomore guard Jerryd Bayless in the 4th quarter.
We'll start with the NBA.com highlights, then chat below the fold. And hey, for you political junkies there's even a tie-in with former state Senator Margaret Carter!
Watch this short video of Nate McMillan discussing the team yesterday, then we'll discuss:
Blazers practice: Lineup changes may be on the horizon
The hints are oblique, but you can understand why, as the Blazers come back home for a date with the semi-resurgent Kings, the buzz in P-Town is revolving around a change at starting PG and giving sophomore Jerryd Bayless more run. We'll have to wait until tonight for sure, but according to one Blazers Edge poster, Jason Quick also predicted a change yesterday while speaking on 95.5 The Game.
Is it a rational thing to do, move Miller into Blake's spot with the first unit? If you've watched the Blazers play this year, it's hard not to see the merits--Blake has been a poor distributor and his shot has been just abysmal so far. With Roy on the court by him, the first part hasn't been as much of an issue because Roy tends to handle the ball a lot himself (and in three-guard alignments there's even less pressure on Blake to make the big pass). But the absolutely crucial part of Blake's game is to hit some treys and stretch the defense. In effect, his long game IS his distributive skill; when he makes his shots the floor opens wide for the true scorers on the team (if they can hit theirs!)
Miller is not the shooter that Blake is--although for lack of another option he's been taking and draining some downtowners lately--but he is a much better and much more active passer. He doesn't drive to the hole like Brandon does necessarily, but considering Blake doesn't drive at all, Miller's an improvement. And that added activity, while not necessarily pulling defenders out from under the basket, does tend to keep them guessing and looking peripherally a lot for cutters and trailers.
The other part of Blake's game that is leading to some questions about effectiveness, is his typically extended dribble in the halfcourt. All Blazer fans understand the frustration, hearing Mike Barrett call a missed opponent shot with "...and the Blazers can run," only to see Blake stop past halfcourt and begin the SleepDribble of Death.
Once again turning to BEdge, editor Ben published an interesting piece showing that "late-clock" shots are in fact a relatively significant proportion of Blazer attempts, the team currently sitting at #1 in that category. Comparing the start of 09-10 to last year's #6 ranking (and nearly equal percentage of shots taken that way), the phenomenon didn't seem to trip them up too badly last year...but the difference is in shots made. According to Ben's research, last year the team made 36% of their short-clock shots; this year it's 20%. That's enough of a drop to take them from 6th in short-makes, to 26th. And that will hurt you.
Miller is definitely somewhat faster, but the King Hell Speedboy on the Blazers is Bayless, who plays his position like he's got something on the stove at home he needs to get back to. Get it across, get it started, get it in, get back--that's JayBay's game. And of course, that certainly doesn't involve wearing out spots on the parquet with a stationary dribble.
So along with the rumors and hints, it seems pretty clear that the numbers are also calling out for a change. We'll see what happens, if it happens--and if it does, it should be a pretty interesting game to watch. As noted, the Kings are--relative to their past anyway--having a fine season so far, and they will take advantage of any Blazer hesitancy and indecision when it comes to understanding roles and playing together. What do the other players do? Does LMA abandon the block and start slicing to the hole or his favorite baseline jumper spots? Do Joel/Dante/Juwan become bigger parts of the scoring offense, being likeliest to be stationed near the bucket when Miller or Bayless run out of tricks in midair and need a relief valve? Is it the death knell for the surfeit of Brandon Roy 10-second iso dramas? Tune in and see!
...is not going to come from Loaded Orygun. That's a job that was mostly being done while I was making my way back from the Garden Saturday night, stewing and just feeling a little sick. But for a story that carries national interest in the sports world, you might come across all kinds of stories and reactions running the gamut in the national and local media--and some of it is definitely better than others, so a careful culling and pruning is best advised.
I have my own thoughts, of course:
I was crushed like a grape under Paul Allen's money when I arrived (a bit late) to the game and heard the news. I spent much of the rest of the contest failing to appreciate the privilege of seeing the Blazers live, but in the fourth quarter as Roy began to work his magic I confess I got into the moment. But even after that thrilling finish, immediately after I felt empty and anguished all over again.
It kills me to see all of the "Bust" tags and "shoulda picked Durant" told-you-sos from around the NBA. For one thing it's a load of crap; nobody is a bust at 21 unless their body or mind is totally broken, and while a patellar injury is ugly and difficult, it's not generally career threatening. And I would still whisper in Kevin Pritchard's ear to take Greg, even knowing what would happen to him, as long as I knew everything else about him that Portland has come to love. Simply put, he's family now--and you don't even consider sending away family, or wishing they never came into your life.
The Blazers may still be a playoff team in 09-10, just not a playoff WINNING team. And maybe they still would have been without Greg, but added to the loss of Batum and Outlaw, it's just too much. That doesn't mean there isn't plenty to look forward to, particularly in the opportunities now likely for guys like Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph to jumpstart their careers.
I could probably go on for a while; this is an emotional subject and I have plenty of emotion to offer. The bottom line is that I feel just terrible for Greg and the rest of the team...but both he and the City will pull through and rise again. Re-UpRise!
But the real reason for posting is to direct you to one article you must read in order to understand. Whether you have time and interest for just one article or 100, there is a must read out there. Naturally, it comes from the guys at Blazers Edge, possibly the best community oriented team sports blog in the nation. Proprietor "Blazer Dave" penned a reaction on Saturday night that is honest, realistic, clear-eyed...and yet also strongly sentimental and coming from the same fan's voice that many of us carry. There's another good piece from him today on where and how the Blazers go from here, and also his buddy Ben has a solid roundup of things from around the horn (as well as a more immediate one from Saturday, with video)--but this is the one that's seminal:
And I know my heart is bleeding into my head as I say the following, but that doesn't mean my head is totally divorced from the equation. I am still overjoyed Greg Oden is a Portland Trail Blazer. In fact were I the owner or GM of this team visiting him the very first thing I'd say is, "I am glad we picked you and if we had to make the pick all over again I would choose the same way." I don't expect Oklahoma Thunder fans to look at it that way. Heck, I don't expect anyone in the whole rest of the league to look at it that way tonight. I get that. I know all of the reasons it makes sense. But that makes sense for you. For me, and I believe for the Blazers, Oden is still the right guy. I would not want anyone else. I've been watching this game for a long time. I've been through the 62 stages of early fandom and have managed to come through passion intact but also, I hope, with a pretty good sense of distinguishing truth from wishes, that which is solid from that which is just convenient and noisy. Greg has shown me something. Even as raw as he is, even as little as we've seen of him compared to what we'd wish, his presence on the court is unique among his teammates and has the potential to be unique in this league. More to the point, for the Blazers he has the potential to do something that a scoring small forward, speedy point guard, or burly power forward does not: decisively fill--nay, overflow--a hole that potentially stands between us and a championship. If Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge weren't already on this team I might not be saying that. If we didn't have a glut of scoring forwards and guards besides I might not be saying that. If I didn't have faith that management will eventually settle the point guard position I might not be saying that. But when push comes to shove the guy in the middle is still the hardest to find and a guy with the potential to bend the game like Oden does is all but impossible to find. Other players would make this team better right now. But I'm not as confident that other players would end up being the potential championship piece for this team in this situation that Greg Oden could be.
Take whoever you want. Make whatever comparisons you want. Give me #52. Then talk to me in a decade and let's see who came out ahead. Greg was quoted by the Blazers, saying, "I'm obviously disappointed having worked so hard to get to where I was. This is a setback, but I'll be back." And we'll be cheering for you: now, then, and after.
For any true Blazer fan, it was a harsh weekend of reality: think your team is the Lakers or the Celtics--or even the Hawks or Nuggets--this year just by fiat of the calendar? The natural outcome of added pounds and maturity on the players, and some vague belief that the NBA universe follows orderly and justified patterns? Welcome back to Planet Actuality, gentle naifs.
It was a pretty jouncy ride; I sympathize. Perhaps Utah on the road was not the best tonic for a surprising home loss to an improving Grizzlies squad, but for a team that looked like it had gone narcoleptic during that epic Memphis run Friday night you had to trust that such an extended mental and physical lapse wouldn't happen again.
It happened again, though. The players blamed fatigue and the Jazz proudly bragged that they had gameplanned with that expectation, but it looked like more (or less) than that. The team looked diffident at both ends but particularly on defense, where off-ball movement was apparently a worthy ideal rather than something of an imperative.
And there's also hesitancy, like you can hear the gears grinding instead of muscles firing on shots and drives to the hole. Do I make the entry pass? Shoot, he sent it back, do I make it again? Should I shoot this umpteenth jumper, or oh geez I should not just think it and HEAVE...damn. If there is one thing that the team misses most about Travis Outlaw (and since Martell and Rudy have awakened I don't think it has caused much of the distress), it's his reckless abandon, his conscience-less ability to shrug off four really awful shots in a row and bury one when it's most needed.
The Blazers did in fact play better overall against the Jazz, a strong team who had spent most of the last week blasting opponents in almost exactly the same fashion as they did to Portland, with their second 60+% shooting night in a row. That's ridiculous, 60%, and even with laconic defense it was clear both Boozer and Williams were unconscious. That will happen with top drawer players. (It doesn't explain Fesenko looking like the second coming of Oscar Robertson in his 13 minutes, though).
It's not quite the quarter-pole of the season; I'll be at the Garden sitting up in the 300's Saturday night, when the Blazers play their 20.5th game of the season against the Rockets. But it's a good point for reflection, particularly since the conclusion of Saturday's nightmare offered two full days of rest before the Heat come to town Tuesday, and particularly since it ends a grueling 19-game open to the first month of play. It's now a day later and still only three teams even have 18. Some have just 14! Even against the weaker schedule the Blazers have had, that's a lot of games and certainly takes its toll.
So it's a good time to look back, both because of the break and because with 20-25 games the stats start to form a gentler curve and become more reliable season-long tools of projection. The news is actually pretty good, although it's clear there are some negative changes relative to last season's performance. We'll check 'em out, below.
With an aerial bombardment worthy of Sarah Palin, a suddenly rejuvenated Martell Webster and the rest of the Blazers went Wolf-hunting on a reliably bad Minnesota team that has now provided 30% of Portland's wins this season, blowing them out this time by the greatest margin at 28, 106-78.
It ended up a laugher, and in contrast to the previous two games the team did not tighten up when their control of the game was threatened. More interestingly, it was the first game for the return of the original starting lineup, which effectively demotes Andre Miller to the second unit and re-hires Martell for the reinstated small forward spot--and for the forseeable future, it looks like the new "regular" lineup.
It also means Brandon Roy moves back to his familiar two guard slot, and for a variety of reasons not least of which is Star Treatment, that's important. A series of unenthusiastically supportive statements from the generally very honest but positive Roy has made it clear he was at best in adjustment during the three-guard experiment. To get a sense of how important it was to him, here's what he told Blazer's Edge after the game:
Brandon Roy, on the other hand, looked as happy as he did the day he signed his max extension, practically gushing over the return to the original starting lineup. "Of course I like it, I'm back to my natural position," Roy said. He later added, "I wish we would have stuck to it a little longer" earlier this year. Sounds to me like those statements we heard this week about Roy not grasping his role found the right set of ears.
His on-camera interview with the Blazers broadcast team said similar things, related to having Blake as his feeder and a shooter like Martell to dish to. If decisions like this were based purely on matchups, such as those where the opposing three is one Roy could easily handle or when the Blazers three is misfiring, I think you might see it come back (and you still might, regardless). But McMillan would be a fool to change it back for any more than a single game without touching base with Roy, and I think Roy's first reaction would be "Nawww..." The three guard threw him off, and if your star is not being maximized in the system it's not a good enough system on an ongoing basis.
{more, after the NBA highlights vid with some sweet material}
Fans, we're nearing the end of the first extended road trip of the season--which has seemed awfully long already, even though only seven of the first dozen have been away games. I think it's just the newness of the season, getting only a couple of home-cooking games at a time before being subjected to those crazy pre-7pm starts when they go on the road. In any case, tonight's early rematch with Atlanta's Hawks proves to be the sternest test yet for this still-young and changing group of ballers we call our own.
Everything and nothing rides on the game, if you can parse that odd concept: the Blazers are 4-0 so far on the trip, and any time you go out for more than a couple games and come back undefeated, so picking up a W in Scarlett O'Hara's hometown would be a huge accomplishment. On the other hand, I'm sure if you'd asked the team whether they'd be satisfied with 4-1 they'd bob their heads like bobbleheads.
Atlanta as the last opponent on the trip is also dichotomously interesting; having already lost to them at home, I'm sure the Blazers would greatly love to return the pain on the Hawks' home floor. It seems like a tall order, given that Atlanta's record matches or exceeds Portland's 8-3 by a half game at 8-2, which includes a convincing beatdown of the Celtics in the Gahden. The Hawks are 4-0 at home and have won by an average of over 17 points, but on the other hand the Blazers are 5-1 in away games and are holding teams to just 82 points over their last six, with their own impressive average victory margin of 12.
So if Portland can muster the win it will send all kinds of positive signals--undefeated road trip, quality road win over a top team, extend the overall winning streak to seven, stay alone at the top of the Northwest Division, triumph of the three-guard lineup against their toughest matchup to face it...but even with a loss, Blazers and their fans will have nothing to complain about on the plane ride home.
The effectiveness of the 3-guard is what intrigues me most about tonight. It was after the Hawks loss that Coach Nate decided to shake things up, and the Miller-Blake-Roy-LaMarcus-Oden lineup was born against San Antonio to highly positive effect. They haven't lost a game since the switch, and the lineup shuffle has definitely had the desired salutory effect.
Simply put, the team just looks like it flows better when that pesky small forward is taken out of the equation. I think it probably has something to do with the streaky nature of both Webster and Outlaw, and their inability to score off the dribble or create something for a teammate with any consistency. While both Webby and Trout can pour in the offense, if they start slowly it seems like it drags the whole team down.
Now that Outlaw is out for two months, of course, either Webster will pick up his minutes directly, or he'll keep what he's getting and the balance will go to folks like Rudy (in a 3-guard setting) or Juwan Howard (in a 2-guard). But who knows how Nate will work things from game to game, and it's really not decided yet anyway that they will continue to use the 3-guard set in games.
On the other hand, why mess with success? Not only did the change apparently allow for the floodgates to open when shooters started out hot, over the last three games against inferior but more physical opponents it also seems to have propped the team up until they could find a rhythm. Against the Bobcast on Saturday night, Brandon Roy faced a larger and talented Gerald Wallace at the 3-slot, but Charlotte ended up throwing whoever they could up against him in a vain attempt to slow him down. Ironically, when the matchups looked more favorable Roy seemed less involved in the grand scheme--but in the supposedly tough matchup, he shined.
And even though it's a bit counterintuitive, given that when it comes to defense it's the guards who are easily the weakest, the defense also appears to have improved from the change. Maybe it's the fact that Outlaw and Martell aren't particularly good defenders either, and Miller/Blake/Roy are at least able to get out and throw a hand up into someone's face. Also, while Miller is nobody's Raja Bell, he has a real defensive peskiness that has turned up a lot of steals that didn't used to be there. Neutralizing the opponents' PG better, and getting a face in their SF, appears to be making a difference.
And I'm still speculating, but the dominance of the interior may owe something to the clearer definition of roles under the 3-guard. By taking out that theoretical middle line of defense between guard and big man, Oden, Joel and LMA can perhaps make a clearer distinction on when to help and when to stay home, that the presence of a true forward on the court may have confused (particularly when our 3s can't usually be counted on to stay with their man on a consistent basis). With the relative few games yet played and the most recent opponents being strugglers on offense, maybe it's a confluence of good work and a smaller challenge.
Or maybe it's just Greg Oden, who is starting to come alive on a more consistent basis, and on defense is already one of the top stoppers in the NBA--1st overall in blocks (and way ahead of the pack at 5 BLK per 48 minutes) and 3rd in overall rebounds per 48. Beyond the stats though, you can just see it during the games--even the beefiest, nastiest guys on the court are starting to shy away from taking it to the hole on Oden, changing their shots around the rim, and discovering that he is having a much better time positioning himself quickly and keeping his arms in the air with a straight-up jump to avoid the foul.
And on offense? Ooh-la-la! I start to salivate when I see those 8 foot baseliners, baby hooks and sweet post moves on guys who are no schlubs, like Tim Duncan and Tyson Chandler. He hasn't put the whole package together offensively (he's watching Joel too closely when it comes to receiving passes in transition, for instance), but you can see the sparks of brilliance, and they're shorter and shorter between sparks.
Enjoy the game--remember it's a 4pm PST start--and watch to see how well Roy does against Josh Smith and potentially Joe Johnson, whether the guards can keep up against Atlanta's strong backcourt, and whether Oden can stay in long enough early to kick the Blazers offense into gear. And if it doesn't work out? What--us worry?
Across Oregon, after the question "Should U of O end up ahead of Boise if they both win out" I'm sure the most popular sports fan worry is "WTF with the Blazers?" It's way early yet, and 2-3 is hardly a disaster--but there are some evil portents and recurrences of past problems that should leave many Blazers fans unsettled if not actually panicked.
You'll notice I did not muster a game recap for the Hawks debacle Tuesday (nor the win in OKC or the loss in Houston, but I'm likely to cover fewer away games and losses anyway); it was partly a lack of free time, partly a lack of general motivation to write on ANY subject--but also a fear that I'd try to keep perspective on things, but fail miserably and begin ranting wildly about the poor start and the implications for the rest of the season.
Because to be honest, I'm a little fearful that the 09-10 season could well be something of a disappointment, in that the string of improvements with each season since ditching the Bad Blazers will come to an end and the team will retrench a little. Not a lot, not to the point of missing the playoffs (I don't think)--but remember this is a team that won 54 games, tied for the division title and had a homecourt playoff series. It's unfortunately VERY easy for me to imagine a scenario where things don't gel quickly enough, and you end up with a 49-50 win season and a 5/6 seed. Still good, and not prohibitive of greater overall success--but I think most fans are expecting at least one series win this year in postseason.
I don't want to break down the ugly details exhaustively, but there are some warning signs I don't like:
Greg Oden looks faster, looks smarter, and is THIS close not only to becoming a serious full-time beast on defense, but a legitimate points producer on offense. But partially through his own performances, and partially in my opinion due to the "rep" he developed around the league, he is replicating the frustrating pattern from last season: too many fouls, not enough minutes. And I sure hope his intermittent bout with fumble-hands in the lane doesn't mean he's trying to learn EVERYTHING Joel does.
Martell seems to have stepped up his defense some, but it needs more improvement, and it would be a tall order anyway to ask for a level of play equal to what Nic Batum can do on D. Adjusting to life without Nic's minutes has been more of an issue than many have realized, I think. And there are signs of Martell's shot being there, but it still looks rather rusty.
Steve Blake and Andre Miller are competing to see who can miss more shots, and fail to make more defensive rotations--and they look more like Washington Generals instead of distributive generals right now. If I had to pick one area that's most responsible for the current state of play, it's the PG play. Some of it has been due to opposing players really catching fire, like Jamal Crawford, but just because they're torching other teams too (Crawford I think dumped in 27 the night after killing us), doesn't get us closer to the W.
So far I can barely tell the players WITH a program--many, many lineups! I mentioned after the Denver game that we saw Twin Towers, No Towers, 3-guard, etc., and the personnel under those alignments has been constantly shifting too. And let's not forget that this team looks different on the floor from last year: Miller instead of Bayless, Martell instead of Batum, Oden instead of Joel, Juwon Howard with a lot of early minutes...no wonder they can't find any rhythm!
Perhaps the unsettled lineups is the reason, but the whole team often looks...hesitant. The best example I can think of is LaMarcus on Tuesday, in the 2nd quarter as the Hawks defenders laid off him in the middle of the key...and you could see the wheels spinning in LMA's head: take it? Pass? Dribble? By the time he made up his mind to shoot, his shot was mechanically off, and so no bucket.
There are probably some more facets to discuss and consider, but the overall view is that they're not playing as a team yet. I think everyone knows their role in the abstract, and it's not about egos fighting for minutes or stats, but that mind-over-muscle flow just isn't there yet, and it's costing them games. As I said, it's not necessarily a portent of disaster; the team was below .500 the first few games last year as well. On the other hand, that was a younger team with a uniquely brutal start to the season. On raw talent, this team should be at worst 3-2 IMO, but honestly 4-1 was not an outsized expectation.
So as the team hosts San Antonio tonight and tries to shake their 1-2 home start, watch and see how some of these early difficulties play out. If they continue, we could be staring at 1-3 for Minnesota on Sunday. But it WILL click, and when it does it will happen suddenly, so go or watch/listen tonight with hope and positive feelings. It's a long season, and these aren't robots, they're humans--young kids really. I worry, but I still love.
Discontinuity -- n. 1. Lack of continuity, logical sequence, or cohesion. 2. A break or gap.
Man, that game was a mess. It was a game that by several metrics the Blazers should be ashamed to have lost, while by other metrics it's a wonder they were even in it to begin with.
So the stats analysis is discontinuous. But that's just the beginning, just one layer. It was the way the Blazers played, the way the Nuggets played, the pace of play, the scoring patterns, even the types of plays and types of calls made. The entire game epitomized gaps, breaks, irregularity and lack of sequence. And when it was over, my digestive system was feeling pretty discontinuous. It was all the herky and twice the jerky. It was double the slap, hold the tickle. It was barely explicable, if not -in...but of course I'll give it a shot. {Below the fold, that is}
The Men of the Red and the Black opened their 40th season this evening at the Rose Garden, before a typically involved crowd whose emotions and outbursts paralleled the play: expectant and unsettled at first, excited and boisterous as the Blazers made their game changing run in the 2nd, desultory as both teams floundered in the 3rd, beer-line confident to open the 4th with a 20-point lead, murmuring and a little antsy as that lead got down as low as six--and then almost audibly relieved as Brandon Roy and Greg Oden took charge to close out the game with a 9-point win over the Houston Rockets. Watch out, Blazers--your town is once again "basketball-involved."
The suspense on the floor was a nice adrenaline-capper to what had been, for many of the "involved," a greatly anticipated evening with new faces and old ones that had apparently gotten better since their exit to the same Rockets in the first round of the 2008-09 playoffs. I especially liked the montage of great Blazer moments since 1970, mashed together without respect to era. Clyde became TP became Petrie became LaMarcus, high def went to grainy TV lines and back. And there are apparently new bands for the opening theme; so far so good.
The introduction seemed like a good idea--players descending to the court from the first-floor section portals, spotlight and framed by adoramus--but it came off rather awkward. First of all, the timing between spotlighting, announcement and descent was off, so in a number of cases the players were mostly in the dark, trying not to trip down the stairs.
But they had been given a pair of team mini-basketballs...not to immediately toss happily into the crowd or to bless small children in the aisles with, but to carry while coming down as Variously Uncomfortable Gods From the Mezzanine. I can't remember who it was, but someone held them for safety to their chest as if modeling prospective plastic surgery (and a gender operation I guess), and I think Andre was concerned someone was going to try to knock one out of his hands.
As for the game, here's a little something, the NBA highlight reel for the first half for the game--just to give you a little flava. I'll give you my take below the fold:
The 2009-10 NBA season for the Portland Trailblazers starts this evening at the Rose Garden, with the Houston Rockets providing the opposition. A special (if somewhat bittersweet) welcome back to Martell Webster, who will start at the 3-hole for the injured Nic Batum, who looks to be out until January at least.
I haven't decided what level of coverage to give the team this year--last year seemed like a special time, and even though it ended a little abruptly I think it was. This year seems to hold even more promise, and that makes news. But it's a grueling 82 game season, especially trying to cover events in the evening when the Joe family is doing things like eating, homework and whanot. I think the best service may be to liveblog away games, as a way to enhance the experience a little bit for anyone who can't see the game on TV (which for away games is a lot of people in Oregon, thanks to Comcast unfortunately).
It should be said that the Merc's (Sarah) Mirk was on this two months ago, and she also makes the salient point that the Blazers are not granted first dibs on the Rose Quarter, although I'm sure their submission will get plenty the look-see....
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Your reporter is not paid well, especially if one agrees nothing is not "well." There are, however, myriad minor perks and fringes that have come up now and again, that offered at least something out of the ordinary if not a keepsake thrill. I got to ask Nancy Pelosi a question at a press conference in Portland in 2008. I've drunk free beer at an environmental coalition party, and I was able to meet Dan Savage while working last year's Rebooting Democracy. The Attorney General even stops by to chat when he sees me typing downtown at lunch. And I have two highly official-looking Obama visit press passes, complete with lanyard, that did indeed get me into media-restricted areas and past long lines--and to meet Colin Meloy of the Decemberists while waiting for the Senator/President.
As noted, your mileage may vary as to the interest level or brush with greatness any of these opportunities represent. And I'm shamelessly name dropping, but in order to make a point: in four years Loaded Orygun has been to some interesting places, usually as a skeptical observer who invariably takes more than their fair share of strawberries from the cheese tray. But until last night, your reporter had never actually been schmoozed as, quote, "an opinion leader."
And yet there in Suite 33 of the Rose Garden, a half hour before the Blazers would squeak by the Denver Nuggets before a packed house sounding ready for the real games, were Larry Miller and J Isaac, President and VP of the team respectively. Also in attendance were several other "opinion leaders," all assuredly more legitimately so than I, including a friendly group representing the effort to get the USS Ranger carrier decommissioned on the Willamette downtown.
And sitting in a plush chair, drinking a Jones root beer, was your reporter. Supposed to be there, in fact. Invited, even. Came up via the special elevator and everything. The invitation was to hear one of the first outreach presentations of the crystallizing plans for redevelopment in the Rose Quarter, to be retro-trendily named Jumptown.
{A little on the presentation, some on the game, and a passel of photos below the jump...}
THANK YOU Paul Allen, for having the wallet of George Steinbrenner with the benevolence of Jack Kent Cooke. THANK YOU for showing up to games even though you live a ways away, and for actively supporting the change philosophy necessary to restore the team to former glory.
THANK YOU Larry Miller, for bringing Allen's commitment to the daily operations of the Trail Blazers as a business operation and corporate citizen, recognizing the team's unusually strong, Brooklyn Dodger-esque connection to the community and working to embrace and foster that connection. And THANK YOU for ceding most of the spotlight to the guy who really thrives on it, below.
THANK YOU Kevin Pritchard, for being the driving force behind the team's acquistion of some nice role players for the team, guys like Brandon Roy (over people like Randy Foye), LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez...THANK YOU for giving this group of 15 a chance to see what they could accomplish this year, without bowing to the considerable temptation for tinkering in order to win now at tomorrow's cost.
THANK YOU Nate McMillan, for being the laconic, straightforward father figure in the mold of the Yankees' Joe Torre. THANK YOU for sticking to your guns in the face of Canzonian attacks, the clamor of blogger cranks, and the chatter of national hoopheads, and building a scheme high on fundamentals and team offense that gave the players a foundation on which to rely when youth and inexperience flared. THANK YOU for staying calm and making enough right moves for 54 wins--which doesn't happen without a lot of right moves from the coach.
I'll have a retrospective/sendoff/thanks piece up about the Blazers season soon, but to put the cart before the horse, here's an edited version of what Jefferson had to say about next steps. Damn him, the guy knows what he's talking about on this subject, too. Are there ANY gaps in his Oregon knowledge?
Blazers need to shop for a point guard who can put pressure on the defense, or they need to commit to playing Rudy and Roy together as well as adding a 3 who can help with the ballhandling a la Pippen/Roy. (Altenatively...cross fingers for Bayless improvement, but shortish arms might limit him)...I like Blake...as one of the best backup PGs in the league.
Oden needs to (a) cut down fouls to stay on the court; (b) develop a left-hand post counter to go with his jump hook; and (c) work on conditioning, flexibility, and slimming, so he can stay healthy.
Outlaw and Batum need to develop penetration games, or the Blazers need to shop for a new 3 (I'm not convinced Webster is much of an upgrade). This is especially important if we don't add a penetrating PG. Our three small forwards are close to what we need, but not quite...hopefully one or more can develop.
Aldridge...needs to (a) improve inside game to get some easy buckets; (b) beef up rebounding up to 8-9+ boards/game, (c) develop a left hand finish, and/or (d) consider embracing finesse game further, by driving to the hoop and being a centerpiece passer like Gasol and Nowitzki. He has those tools.
Blazers need to add some muscle -- either by Oden staying on the floor, current players like Aldridge toughening, or adding a new stronger SF. Some strengthening can come with age (or with undetectable human growth hormone, which I advise against).
For the record, I think Blake CAN be a good enough starting PG, although it would be a helpful thing indeed to get a crazy-defending, heavy-distributing guard instead. I worry about missing his key buckets offensively, though. As far as Outlaw and Martell, I think Martell IS a better version, and matches up well with Batum there as his defensive opposite. I love Travis on a personal level, and some aspects of his game are dynamite, but it's too streaky and comes at too high a cost elsewhere.
And I like LMA is well on his way to the dominance Jeff talks about, but could always use some improvement. Oden will be fine, and I think Joel can teach him everything he needs to know--but footwork and ballhandling in the paint are key work areas for the summer.
That's what Rudy Fernandez had to say after the game about the prospect of going to Houston: "We know Houston is a difficult arena, but we believe. We believe." (That's in Joe Freeman's recap at The O, but you should check out the profile/news piece on Rudy that's also in today's editions.) After a game like Game 5 in the Garden Tuesday night, how do you not believe?
How can you not become vested in these games, your heart pacing with the rhythm of the ups and downs, hoping for the flash of brilliance from these new young guys who like being here and play so hard they remind us of the magic--small m--years of the Blazers? (Don't look at me for sanity; my developing mancrushes are becoming so disconcerting that I squeal like a 14 year old girl when Rudy hits a three).
So when the Olympic half of the Spanish Armada says he believes, who's to argue? It's not so stupid a belief, despite the long struggles for Portland there--after a regular season where they never threatened the Rockets in Houston, in the playoffs they've had at least a couple chances to win each one, and in the last game actually took control late for a few moments before collapsing in a heap of mistakes.
There are some solid reasons to favor the Blazers just a little in Game 6, not least of which is a momentum shift that places much more of the performance pressure on the Rockets than on Portland. Several recent first round exits have got the fans and local media a bit spooked, to the point where a loss in Game 6 automatically cedes the series back in Oregon. And then there's that whole how-many-minutes-can-Yao-play-before-he-turns-to-salt question, after yet another 40-minute performance.
Blazer fans for their part take some of the same liberties in their assumptions about a Game 7 sure-win scenario, but if Portland falls it will be the end of an enormously successful season, in which every playoff game was gravy to start with. Our fantasies are just that--what-ifs that aren't unreasonable, just way too much to expect. The threat of losing shouldn't be hanging over this team, threatening to discolor the effort of the whole season. It's ALREADY a huge success.
Houston fans, on the other hand, aren't satisfied with another first round exit, nor should they be. To begin with, the Rockets should have been 2nd seed and mauling the Hornets right now, instead of locked in this matchup that gets uglier and more unsure for them by the game. And they've got plenty of experience and defense to be showing well in the second season. In sum, Blazer fans can be loose and accept whatever outcome occurs in the end. Houston's players and coaches will not receive quite the "ah well, great try!" welcome come salarly negotiation time over the summer.
So this Game 5 win was (natch) pretty freakin' huge. Shall we talk about it a bit? Sure, why not. Let's start below...
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